Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.355566 0.408443 0.465875 0.532808 0.608590 0.691643 0.789480
2025-07-20 0.283440 0.354365 0.437481 0.541762 0.668768 0.818081 1.006556
2025-07-27 0.234767 0.317361 0.421130 0.560333 0.741350 0.967839 1.271654
2025-08-03 0.197301 0.287172 0.407722 0.579837 0.817588 1.132482 1.578806
2025-08-10 0.156323 0.244618 0.370850 0.562255 0.842373 1.233945 1.818459
2025-08-17 0.122314 0.205381 0.331693 0.534600 0.848315 1.309727 2.032711
2025-08-24 0.100296 0.180016 0.308471 0.526224 0.880421 1.426239 2.320093
2025-08-31 0.082638 0.158178 0.286858 0.516462 0.908280 1.539062 2.615473
2025-09-07 0.071930 0.146165 0.279290 0.528259 0.972093 1.715450 3.031825
2025-09-14 0.058742 0.126889 0.255654 0.508174 0.978490 1.797864 3.303092
2025-09-21 0.049604 0.113540 0.240447 0.500633 1.005364 1.917315 3.650095
2025-09-28 0.041754 0.101156 0.224861 0.489636 1.023794 2.023135 3.983954
2025-10-05 0.037242 0.095324 0.222003 0.504548 1.096203 2.240209 4.553821
2025-10-12 0.032105 0.086946 0.212336 0.503949 1.137987 2.405161 5.046487
2025-10-19 0.028529 0.081513 0.208185 0.514574 1.204534 2.626479 5.674402
2025-10-26 0.025578 0.076986 0.205298 0.527586 1.278095 2.870647 6.375786
2025-11-02 0.021279 0.067807 0.189516 0.507969 1.276817 2.960137 6.771186
2025-11-09 0.017344 0.058590 0.171765 0.480385 1.253059 2.998570 7.063243
2025-11-16 0.014830 0.052885 0.162007 0.471072 1.270913 3.129859 7.570206
2025-11-23 0.012678 0.047707 0.152620 0.461032 1.285419 3.255066 8.077195
2025-11-30 0.011477 0.045316 0.150664 0.470735 1.351022 3.505814 8.896116
2025-12-07 0.009615 0.040105 0.139290 0.452054 1.340219 3.574011 9.297738
2025-12-14 0.008331 0.036583 0.132327 0.444832 1.358837 3.715529 9.888322